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TODAY'S JOB MARKET: Peak Economic Cycle Edition

If the chart below were an investment chart, you'd be looking to start scaling back tech stocks in your portfolio right now.

Take a look and let's talk about this visual after the jump (email subscribers click through for image):

PeakEconomicCycle

What this chart tells us is that over 50% of businesses are reporting they have few or no qualified applicants for job openings today.  Look at the chart closely, and you'll also see that percentage is higher than at any point between the 01 and 08 recessions (gulp). You'll also see that the latest spike has us reaching recruiting difficulty at its highest level in 20+ years.

That seems like a picture that tells us we are at what I like to call "peak economic cycle" right now.  Here's what that means for your recruiting/people/talent function:

--It's going to be harder to find people. You'll need to spend more on recruiting than you traditionally have to acquire talent in 2017.

--At times, you're going to have to buy candidates with expensive offers to get the talent you need in key positions.

--If you have compensation issues, now's the time to be aggressive to do equity increases in key roles that are under-comped vs the market.  Make those adjustments and you can buy yourself another year.  Refuse to do it in key roles, and there's a great chance you'll lose experience AND pay more for the talent you ultimately recruit to replace the great people who leave.

Peak economic cycle = Turd Sandwich for the companies who don't like to spend much on recruiting and have a "trail" strategy related to compensation in key roles.

That's right - "turd sandwich".  You won't see that in the reports from economists, but that's what it is for a lot of you.

Take this chart to your CEO/Ops lead and get some more money.  You're going to need a bigger boat until this thing cools off.

 

Comments

AC

This is scary. Pieces of the puzzle to consider:
- fewer people in the workforce
- proliferation of useless degrees (what do you mean you don't need someone with B.A. in Feminist Dance Therapy?)
- How does this square up with the emerging technology? IE - driverless cars, driverless trucks, kiosks in fast food restaurants, robots, etc...?

Do we think retired baby boomers will return to the workforce? What happened to all those people who "stopped looking for work"? Can we get colleges to focus education on things a little more practical and a little less political?

Patty Silbert

Your comment is spot on "Can we get colleges to focus education on things a little more practical and a little less political?". All I can say is "Ding". That is a major problem.

economicsworld

Over 50% of businesses are reporting they have few or no qualified applicants for job openings today.
Maybe they're looking for high competence emplyers with poor salary request

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