Note from the Capitalist: I've got other posts ready to go, but the concept of hiring probability is on my mind today in a big way. Take a read if you didn't see this last year and weigh in on the comments. How you interview, how you make offers, what you say - it all contributes to something I like to call "Hiring Probability"...
We have a little game I like to play in our department. It's called "hiring probability"... It's like Liar's Poker, but no money changes hands...
There's talk about candidates all day, every day in our department. Whether it's an initial phone screen, a round of face-to-face interviews or even just a resume submittal, I have one question for myself and my peeps when it comes to the prospects of hiring the candidate in question - what's the probability?
Hiring probability is defined as the probability that you will get an accepted offer from the candidate and they'll start work for your company. You can throw out a probability number when you see a resume for the first time, when you have a signed offer, and everything in between. Is it 10%, 45%, 95%? Only the shadow knows...
So, here's a scenario I'm currently working through. Play the game and guess the probability we are actually going to sign the talent in question:
-Position - Sales Pro, good opportunity to earn with a company in a position of market leadership.
-Me - Found candidate with the background, great phone screen and ongoing conversations
-Hiring Managers and Next Level Influencers - love the candidate in person and on the phone. Prepared to make offer.
-Confounding Variable - Competitive situation. Other software providers (not competitors) like the talent too, and are circling.
-Commitment - We make verbal offer, and follow up with the details in writing. Great offer, no comp issues.
-Confounding Variable #2 - The candidate responds positively to the offer, but then goes "off the voice grid", and doesn't return calls. Oddly enough, returns emails though.
-Confounding Variable #3 - Candidate "kind of" accepts offer, sending background workup back and saying that they have to work through a couple of issues before they can sign the offer letter, but they'll be ready to go on 1/5. Also says that they'll be on an early Christmas break over the next week, and they can only be reached via email.
-Me - Since the candidate won't return my calls, I politely ask (via email) for commitment via signed offer letter, citing time line, other candidates, etc. Offer to help candidate work through issues he has regarding offer letter, like non-compete, etc.
So, play the game with me by hitting me with your thoughts in the comments. What's the probability this candidate is going to start with my company on November 5th?